Abstract
Understanding the selection uncertainty of moving targets is a fundamental research problem in HCI. However, the only few works in this domain mainly focus on selecting 1D moving targets with certain input devices, where the model generalizability has not been extensively investigated. In this paper, we propose a 2D Ternary-Gaussian model to describe the selection uncertainty manifested in endpoint distribution for moving target selection. We explore and compare two candidate methods to generalize the problem space from 1D to 2D tasks, and evaluate their performances with three input modalities including mouse, stylus, and finger touch. By applying the proposed model in assisting target selection, we achieved up to 4% improvement in pointing speed and 41% in pointing accuracy compared with two state-of-the-art selection technologies. In addition, when we tested our model to predict pointing errors in a realistic user interface, we observed high fit of 0.94 R2.